Managing risk in commercial property development projects during the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from China

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic is the biggest global health crisis in years. China is the first market primarily affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with unprecedented lockdown measures bringing real estate and other economic activities to a standstill. This study has two objectives: (1) to identify the risks critical to the risk management of commercial real estate (CRE) development projects based on the project life cycle stages and (2) to identify the stages most affected by the COVID-19 pandemic and the risk factors at different stages. Three rounds of the Delphi study were conducted with nine experts involved in the construction project. The findings indicate that the construction, lease and sale phases are prone to significant risks. Additionally, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) identified ‘health and safety risk’ as the most critical risk factor during the construction phase and ‘marketing and payback risk’ as the most critical risk factor during the lease and sale phase. This study enhanced the effectiveness of risk management practices for implementing CRE development projects in China.