Impacts of economic structural change on economic growth: forecasting models and policy implications (a case study of Ben Tre province)

Abstract

During the past ten years, economic growth in Vietnam changed positively in the direction of a modern industrial economy. Accordingly, economic structure also experienced changes in which manufacturing and service sectors accounted for a bigger share in the GDP. The government and most researchers are therefore very interested in economic structural change. This structural change in Vietnam as a whole requires the same change in local economies. However, some provinces did not catch up with the national development yet. Thus, in order to facilitate structural change on the whole economy, it is necessary to clarify what economic structural change aims at, and identify a quantitative model for measuring impact of such change, which becomes a real challenge to Vietnam?s researchers and policy makers. To help solve this problem, the authors conducted a case study in B?n Tre to seek practical evidence. The results, based on regressive model, VAR model and Granger causality test, show that economic structural change impacts on the level of economic growth, labor productivity and the quality of life. This research also lays the foundation for a model for forecasting impacts of economic structural change.